Comex Silver (SI)
Silver’s recovery was limited at 16.785 last week and weakened again. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 15.76 first and break will bring fall resumption. As noted before, a short term top is at formed at 17.69 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline could be seen to to 1.5185 support and possibly below. On the upside, however, above 16.785 will indicate that pull back from 17.69 has likely completed and retest of this high should be seen.
In the bigger picture, while a short term top is formed at 17.69, there is no indication of completion of rise from 8.4 yet. Such medium term rise is still in favor to continue after finishing the pull back from 17.69. Nevertheless, note that we’re not seeing a clear impulsive structure from 8.4 yet and hence, we’d treat such rise as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. In other words, current rise from 8.4 is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring at least one more medium term fall.
On the downside, however, break of 12.435 support will in turn indicate that whole rise from 8.4 has completed. That is, the third wave of the consolidation pattern from 21.44 has possibly started in such case, targeting a new low below 8.4.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and hence, we’d prefer the case that it’s just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart