You have an opportunity to spend the next week learning how you can spot high-confidence trade setups in the charts you follow every day.
Elliott Wave International (EWI) is hosting a free Trader Education Week, October 2-9. Register now and get instant access to free trading resources — plus you’ll receive more lessons as they’re unlocked each day of the event.
Jeffrey Kennedy, EWI analyst and one of the world’s foremost market technicians, has taught thousands how to improve their trading through his courses, subscription services and as an adjunct professor of technical analysis at Georgia Tech University. Now you have the opportunity to be a student in his online classroom, as he takes complex technical methods and tools and breaks them down so that you can apply them to your trading immediately.
Don’t miss this opportunity to learn how to spot trading opportunities in the markets you follow.
Register today and get your first 4 free trading resources immediately, plus we’ll alert you to valuable new resources unlocked every day beginning October 2.
About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Trend Changes in Financial Markets: 7 Key Market Calls
A record of spotting major market turns most investors miss
By Elliott Wave International
Elliott Wave International is dedicated to helping subscribers anticipate the next major market turn. No, we don’t always “get it right” – yet the examples below speak for themselves.
1. In 2005, EWI called the 2006 real estate turn.
Some say real estate can’t go down because far too many people are concerned about a real estate bubble, a worry that is now even greater than it was for stocks at the March 2000 NASDAQ peak … it is actually another sign of a top when participants are dismissive of the warnings.
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, July 2005
House prices peaked in July 2006. By April 2012, the Associated Press reported, “Home prices have fallen 35% since the housing bust.”
2. In 2007, EWI called the stock market turn.
Aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position now. We may be early by a couple of weeks, but the market has traced out the minimum expected rise, and that’s enough to act upon.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, Interim Report, July 17, 2007
Those aggressive speculators were rewarded. From an Oct. 9, 2007, high of 14,164, the Dow Industrials tumbled to 6,547 by March 9, 2009.
3. In 2008, EWI called the crude oil turn.
Less than six weeks before the $147 high in the price of
oil, the June 2008 Financial Forecast observed that
“The case for an end in oil’s rise is growing even stronger.”
The chart below was published in that issue:
Note that the sentiment index on the chart shows bullish sentiment reaching 90%.
By December 2008, the price of oil had declined 80%.
4. In 2011, EWI called the retracement high in the CRB Index.
The CRB index has reached the upper end of its corrective-wave trend channel while simultaneously reaching a Fibonacci 50% (1/2) retracement of the 2008-2009 decline, as it completes an A-B-C rally. This index should soon begin another wave down that takes it below the 2009 low.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2011
The CRB index topped less than four months later.
5. In 2012, EWI called the turn in gas prices.
The rush to extrapolate [rising prices] is all we need to conclude that the odds of … gasoline prices going to the moon are extremely low.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, April 2012
Gasoline prices topped during the same month that issue published.
6. In 2009, EWI called the turn in stocks.
The majority of investors thought that the period from
October 10 to year-end 2008 was a major market bottom. But
over the past four months The Elliott Wave Theorist,
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and the Short
Term Update have repeatedly stated, without equivocation,
that the market required a fifth wave down. There were no
alternate counts. The Wave Principle virtually guaranteed
lower lows, and now we have them.
I recommend covering our short position at today’s close.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, Special Investment Issue, Feb. 23, 2009
The Dow Industrials hit a major low just 10 days later!
7. In 2012, EWI called the trend change in bond yields.
Investors’ waxing fears will cause them to start selling bonds, which will lead to lower bond prices and higher yields. ….
If rates do begin to rise as we expect, most observers will probably be fooled.
The Elliott Wave Theorist and Financial Forecast, Special Report, June 2012
On July 5, 10-year bond yields climbed to 2.72%, its highest level since July 2011.
In each of these forecasts, the consensus opinion was on the opposite side. Most investors never saw these major trend changes coming. Again, we’re not perfect — no forecasting service is.
Come see what we see.
You’ll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International’s 30-year history; you’ll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today’s tumultuous market.
world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to
institutional and private investors around the world.
Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference
History shows that the U.S. should pay attention to economies in Europe
By Elliott Wave International
The economy has been sluggish for five years. There’s no shortage of chatter about “why,” yet few observers mention deflation.
One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.
The presentation by Dan Arbess, a partner at Perella Weinberg and chief investment officer at PWP Xerion Funds, was startling because of how deeply it broke from the standard narrative.
We’ve been wrong to assume that the economic crisis is over, Arbess said. … The threat of deflation is once again rearing its head.
“The persistent risk in our economy is deflation not inflation,” Arbess said.
CNBC, May 2
Deflation appears to be more than a threat. Consider what’s
already happening in the U.S. and in Europe.
Industrial production declined in April by the most in eight months, indicating American manufacturers will provide little support for an economy beset by weaker global markets and federal budget cuts.
Bloomberg, May 15
Europe is slipping further into recession.
The euro zone economy shrank more than expected in the first three months of 2013 … as France returned to recession for the first time since 2009 and Germany barely edged forward.
It marked the longest recession for the euro countries since the currency was introduced in 1999.
New York Times, May 15
Here’s a relevant fact: The Great Depression of 1929-1932 started in Europe before coming to America.
The economic wave may be much bigger this time.
Robert Prechter made this observation:
Total credit will contract, so bank deposits will contract,
so the supply of money will contract, all with the same
degree of leverage with which they were initially expanded.
Conquer the Crash, second edition,
EWI published this chart in March 2012.
The enormous credit expansion that started in the early 1980s is due to be leveled.
You can prosper during the next economic contraction. Many
people did just that during the Great Depression. Robert Prechter’s
New York Times bestseller, Conquer the Crash, can
teach you what you need to know to protect your portfolio
during these high-risk financial times.
For a limited time, you can get part of Conquer the Crash
for free. See below for more details.
This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You’ll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.
world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to
institutional and private investors around the world.
Last week at its regular policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would double down on the policies that have failed to produce anything but a stagnant economy. It was a disappointing, but not surprising, move.
The Fed affirmed that it is prepared to increase its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities if things don’t start looking up. But actually the Fed has already been buying more than the announced $85 billion per month. Between February and March, the Fed’s securities holdings increased $95 billion. From March to April, they increased $100 billion. In all, the Fed has pumped more than a half trillion dollars into the economy since announcing its latest round of “quantitative easing” (QE3) in September 2012.
Although many were up in arms when the Fed said it would buy $600 billion in government debt outright for the previous round, QE2, all seems quiet about the magnitude of QE3 because it doesn’t come with huge up-front total price tag. But by year’s end the Fed’s balance sheet could hit $4 trillion.
With no recovery in sight, where’s all this money going? It is creating bubbles. Bubbles in the housing sector, the stock market, and government debt. The national debt is fast approaching $17 trillion, with the Fed monetizing most of the newly issued debt. The stock market has been hitting record highs for the past two months as investors seek to capitalize on the Fed’s easy money. After all, as long as the Fed keeps the spigot open, nominal profits are there for the taking. But this is a house of cards. Eventually, just like in 2008-2009, the market will discipline the bad actions of the Fed and seek to find the real normal.
In the meantime, real families are suffering. While Wall Street and the government take advantage of access to the Fed’s new “free” money, the Fed claims there is no inflation. But who hasn’t paid higher prices at the grocery store, the gas pump, for tuition, for insurance? It’s bad enough that household incomes have stagnated, but real purchasing power has declined so much that one in seven Americans, 47.3 million people, are on food stamps. Five million are collecting unemployment insurance with 21.5 million afflicted by unemployment according to the government’s own figures. That’s 13.9 percent — close to double the 7.5 percent unemployment number reported last week.
We are certainly not in a recovery. We don’t see the long unemployment and soup kitchen lines like in the Great Depression, but that’s just because the lines are electronic now.
It is not surprising the Fed has decided to hand the American people more of the same failed policies. But it is disappointing. We know what the real solution is: allow the marketplace to work. Allow entrepreneurs the chance to create instead of stifling innovation with arbitrary regulations. Allow interest rates to rise to equal the risks in the economy. Allow bad debts to be liquidated so we can build on a firm foundation. Stop printing money to benefit the government and big banks. Restore sound money to the economy and the American people. Sound money is the bedrock for prosperity and the best check on big government and crony capitalism.
Hi everyone. I came across this interesting video on youtube a few minutes ago and I thought I’d share it with you all. I totally agree with Peter Schiff on this one. It boggles the mind how messed up the structure of the global financial system is these days. Enjoy the video:
I recently came across Jim Rogers’ new book – Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets – and I’d figure some of you may enjoy reading a brief review of it.
For those of you who do not know who Jim Rogers is, permit me to give you his brief bio. James Beeland Rogers, Jr. (born October 19, 1942) is an American investor and author. He is currently based in Singapore. Rogers is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). Jim is a well-known investor who has appeared on numerous financial TV shows.
He has written several other books, some of which are: Adventure Capitalist, Investment Biker, A Gift to My Children, Hot Commodities, A Bull in China. I haven’t read any of his other books but I plan on grabbing a copy of each one soon.
Now on to the book. First of all I should mention that this book is not a “how to” guide on investing. Instead this books is part memoir, part investment primer, part history lesson, part travelogue, part sermon, and just an all around good read. Jim Rogers is a strongly opinionated guy and I for one can definitely appreciate and respect that. He has a wealth of investing experience so what he says is not a bunch of hot air or rehashed investment cliches. So if you get a chance to read the book (and I suggest you do) and you get to a parts where Mr. Rogers espouses his passionate opinions, take a deep breath and consider what he is saying before you react in a sort of “knee-jerk” fashion.
I’m not a literary critic by any means but if I was to comment upon how the book was written I’d say that Jim did a fine job. His language is simple, clear, concise, and empty of any jargon or run on sentences. Put simply, it is terse and pithy, which is precisely how a book should be in my opinion. It is also not a super long read either, so I think if you dedicate an hour tops per day you should be able to finish it in a week or two.
In this book Roger puts forth several personal viewpoints that I believe are worth considering. Some of them you may not agree with some of them you might. I found myself agreeing with quite a few of them. Some of them I can’t comment on as I do not happen to have the relevant background experience (such as the US educational system – I was not educated in the US , etc). Here are some of the interesting “core” ideas in this book:
- The US is declining as fast as Asia is rising.
- If you want to give your kids a good education, make sure they learn Chinese.
- The best investment opportunities are in Asia.
- The US spends twice as much on healthcare as the average nation and gets terrible outcomes.
- High healthcare and litigation costs are the major reasons why American carmakers can’t compete globally.
- The fourth leading cause of death in the US is hospital infection.
- The US will go the way of Rome, Timbuktu, Morocco, Portugal, Spain and Greece.
- The cure for high prices is high prices.
- Jim Rogers is always two or three years ahead of the curve.
- Because governments are debasing currencies, commodities are the best investment.
- Don’t believe government statistics.
- According to government stats, there are more pets in Japan than children.
- The school system in Singapore is far superior to any in the US.
- Marco polo did not have a passport.
- Throughout history, the most prosperous societies have been open ones.
- In the US, the primacy of the individual has become subordinated to the state.
- If you want to save America, change to a consumption tax, change our education system, institute healthcare and litigation reform, and bring home our troops (from over 100 countries.)
- The only real failure is not to try; the only improper question is the one unasked.
What do you think? These ideas are definitely unconventional, but wisdom is rarely conventional – especially when one truly has a pioneering ideas. History will prove Jim Rogers right or wrong, and thus far he’s been right with a remarkable level of accuracy. Let me know what you think of his ideas and if you get a chance to read his book let me know what you think.
So this concludes my humble review. Overall id’s give this book a score of 9 out 10. It is in my opinion a good read and I definitely recommend it. Now on to ebay and amazon to find me some copies of his other books.
Happy investing to you all!
My dear American readers/followers. This video is for you. Hopefully after you’ve watched it you understand who are your TRUE masters.
A sober look at the Canadian real estate market:
According to investment analysts, Canadian citizens are feeling more optimistic about their financial futures than they have since 2011. Consumer confidence indexes leapt by a full five points to a resounding 99 halfway through 2012. Data collected by Nielson reflected the fact that only seven out of 58 analyzed countries enjoyed such dramatic rebounds. Ideally, such optimism would have a profoundly positive impact on the economy, launching increased spending and rising property values. Idealism, however, has no place in the property market today. Happy homeowner outlooks could potentially dig consumers into deeper debt holes because the optimism boom bares no reflection on the reality of the national economy.
Forty percent of Canadian citizens believe that property purchase is currently an excellent idea. Inflation levels are dwindling, which is responsible for much of the boom. Hourly earnings have also climbed by just over three percent. Nationally, retailers are focusing on exploiting the opportunity to claim additional market share by offering reduced prices. In Canadian minds, financial circumstances are looking bright, yet in reality, citizens are heavily weighed down by increased debt loads. Only 38% are funneling their negligible disposable incomes into debt relief. Almost half of Canada`s consumers are aware that they exist in a recession, but many of these foresee a far brighter future for the economy within the next 12 months. The perspectives of central banks are far gloomier than those of consumers. As 2013 dawned, The Bank of Canada saw a subtler outlook for the rebound. Intentions to stimulate the potential rebound have been reigned in as bonds rise and the Canadian Dollar declines. The Bank of England aims to push up rates, an action that has been avoided for three years.
Analysts such as Nielson offer little more than the personal perspectives of local consumers. A more realistic perspective of the housing market can be found from investment analysts seeking to draw a clearer picture of household debt and property sales. Price rises have begun to dwindle as the housing market finds balance. In an attempt to calm down debt loads, attempts are being made to discourage lending by increasing interest rates on loans. At the close of 2012, those in the know were in a panic about the imminent rates increases that were expected to arrive. Governor Mark Carney had been encouraging rate hikes to save unwary consumers from taking on additional debt loads. On 23 January, these expectations were analyzed again in terms of the low inflation rate and currency changes. Carney took a kinder approach to rate hikes and increases are now expected to occur only in April 2013. Some more optimistic analysts predict rate increases only in 2014.
One of the main goals of stimulus packages is the intention to keep inflation beneath two percent. The property sector is also a concern, but it appears to be balancing itself out despite continuing increases in building. The resultant rising inventories are not expected to cause dramatic imbalances in the housing sector.
Certain strategists are even interpreting the pending rate increases as prequels of future rate cuts. Carney has stated that he has not ruled out the option. The housing sector has improved slightly, which means that adjustments have become less necessary. Investment analysts predict that Canada will have experienced a full economic recovery by 2014, a slightly less optimistic vision than that communicated in 2012.
Debt to income ratios are expected to find equilibrium at the current level as consumers spend more carefully on credit. Despite these positive changes of opinion, if the housing sector rebounds, the results may negatively impact income-debt ratios in the future, which is decidedly risky for the economy. For ten years, the housing market has been working towards a boom and a growth of property credit is one of Carney`s most profound concerns. Demand for property experienced a sudden upsurge, followed by a dramatic decline in demand. Real estate professionals found themselves in a sudden market crash. In response, The Bank of Canada tried to induce a bubble by pushing interest rates down. The decline might have dire impacts on the local economy. Job loss, recession and the debt crisis happened simultaneously, pushing housing values down by as much as 22 percent. It is suspected that consumer confidence was responsible for the crisis. Inflated property offers may well have banished households into too much debt, perfectly demonstrating the power of overconfidence. National debt relief remains one of the most efficient ways to stabilize first world country housing bubbles that coincide with credit balloon.
Greetings fellow Canadian investors. A while back I blogged about how my current stock broker – Questrade – is offering 3 months of free trades. Well, I just wanted to remind that this promotion is still active, so if you’re thinking about switching brokers or thinking about getting into either trading stocks as a daytrader or simply want to build your own custom stock portfolio now would be the time to make a move. One reason to switch to this broker is that they offer the lowest commission rates in Canada.
So anyways, what you need to do to qualify for 3 free months of trading is visit this link and then use this offer code: RSP2013
Good luck and happy trading!
Btw, if you wish to discuss stocks – especially Canadian stocks – join me at the Stocks Nirvana forum.
Greetings fellow Canadian investors and traders. I have a pretty cool promotion passed on to me by Questrade – my current stock broker. They’re having a special promotion where you can get free unlimited trades for a period of 3 months. Use offer code RSP2013 before March 1, 2013 to get unlimited free trades. It’s really all that simple. Is there a catch? Nope, but there is fine print that you should read, and speaking of which here it is:
Terms and conditions
How to qualify
Open a new registered, margin or TFSA* account by 11:59 p.m. ET, March 1st, 2013 and, depending on your funding level, get up to 3 months of unlimited free stock trades. The free trades are in the form of commission rebates.
Get started here
- Enter the promotional code RSP2013 online when completing the application for a new account.
- The offer is open to new and existing equity clients.
- The free trades apply to equity trades only (sorry, no option orders, gold trading, mutual fund trading, or foreign currency trading).
- Foreign exchange (forex) accounts are not eligible.
- If you are funding your account by transferring from another broker, the transfer must be initiated by 11:59 p.m. ET, March 1st, 2013 and must be completed within 60 days of initiation to qualify for the offer.
- New accounts by existing Questrade clients cannot be funded by transferring funds from another Questrade account.
Depending on your funding levels, get 1, 2, or 3 months of free trades: details
- The minimum required funding to get 3 months of unlimited free stock trades is CAD $50,000. All equity trades completed within 90 days of account activation are free.
- The minimum required funding to get 2 months of unlimited free stock trades is CAD $25,000. All equity trades completed within 62 days of account activation are free.
- The minimum required funding to get 1 month of unlimited free stock trades is CAD $1,000. All equity trades completed within 31 days of account activation are free.
And to make it easier to get started…
- You have an additional 30 days from the date the account is activated to reach the minimum funding requirement for additional month(s) of unlimited free stock trades. That sounds complicated, but really it’s quite simple. Here’s an example: fund it with $1,000 immediately so you get started trading. Then before the month is up, add another $49,000, and your free trades continue for the full three months. Nice, huh?
Some terms and conditions
- Your account will be charged for the trading commission during the qualifying period and the commission will then be rebated to your account within three business days of the trade execution up to a maximum of $9.95 per trade.
- Account holders must maintain the following minimum account balance for at least 6 months of account funding in order to be eligible for the corresponding offer:
- $50,000 for 3 months of unlimited free stock trades
- $25,000 for 2 months of unlimited free stock trades
- If the account balance falls below the minimum required amount before the end of the 6 month period due to withdrawals on your account, you will no longer qualify for the offer and Questrade will apply a charge to your account based on the credited amount. If the account balance falls below the minimum required asset amount due to market fluctuations, you are still eligible for the offer and no charges will be applied.
A few more terms and conditions
- Other trade fees including exchange and ECN fees may apply.
- This is free trades only. You will not receive cash compensation for any unused free trade commissions.
- Amounts quoted are in CAD.
- You are solely responsible for any tax consequences or other amounts which may be associated with the Offer.
- This offer is not available to Questrade employees or members of their household.
- This offer is subject to change without notice.
- This is a one-time offer per client. This means pick your account wisely: put the free trades in the account you want to trade in!
- This offer cannot be combined with any other Questrade offer except free to transfer (see below).
FREE TO TRANSFER
Questrade will pay your transfer-out fees up to CAD $150 when you move a minimum of CAD $25,000 to Questrade from another brokerage. Payment of the transfer-out fee is capped at CAD $150 and is limited to one account per client.
To take advantage of this limited time promo simply open an account by visiting the Questrade homepage.
Enjoy your free trades!