Comex Gold (GC)
Gold continued to engage in choppy sideway trading below 1025.8 last week, without making any progress. Further consolidation could still be seen with risk of another fall. Though, downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4. However, note that 1033.9 is needed to be firmly taken out to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, we’d expected more sideway trading below 1033.9 in near term.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, rise from 681 is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 high will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. However, a strong break of 931.3 support will invalidate this bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will in turn indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9. In other words, deeper fall could then be seen towards 681 key support level in such case.
In the long term picture, long term rally from 1999 low of 253 turned into consolidation after completing a five wave sequence to 1033.9 in 2008. Such consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed in form of expanding triangle to 681 already and rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 should confirm this case and target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart