Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Intraday outlook in Natural gas remains neutral as sideway consolidation from 3.90 is still in progress. Nevertheless, further rise is still in favor as long as 3.321 support holds. As discussed before, with daily MACD staying positive, a short term bottom should at least be formed in 2.409. Further rise is in favor and above 3.90 will target 4.162 key near term resistance. Break there will solidify the case that Natural gas has bottomed out and bring further rise towards 4.575 resistance next. On the downside, below 3.321 support will suggest that rebound from 2.409 might have completed and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. With daily MACD turned positive, a short term bottom should at least be in place at 2.409. Also, such development argues that fall from 13.69 might have completed after meeting 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. Break of 4.162 resistance will affirm this case and bring stronger rally to test 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.79) and then 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 2.40 at 6.71. Nevertheless, another fall could still be seen as long as 4.162 holds. Still, we’d expect strong support from 1.96 (02 low) to finally conclude the whole decline from 13.69.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart