Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil dived sharply to as low as 65.05 last week after breaking medium term trend line support decisively. The development affirms the case that crude oil has topped out in medium term at 75.0 and indicates that fall from there has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and sustained trading below 65.23 cluster support (100% projection of 75.0 to 67.05 from 73.16 at 65.21) will target 161.8% projection at 60.30 next, which is close to next psychological level of 60. On the upside, above 68.02 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation, but rebound should be limited below 71.77 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading below medium term trend line support solidifies that case that medium term rebound from 33.2, which is treated as correction whole down trend form 147.27, has completed at 75.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. Further break of 58.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 75.0 at 59.03) will confirm this case and pave the way for a retest of 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 71.77 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we’re still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone even in case of another rise and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
