Archive for the ‘Technical Analysis’ Category:
The Stock Market Is Not Physics: Part I
By Elliott Wave International
The following series is excerpted from two classic issues of Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. Although originally published in 2004, the valuable series has been re-released in the Independent Investor eBook, along with over 100 pages of other reports that challenge conventional economic thinking.
Here is Part 1 of the series. Check back in a few days to read Part 2, or you can download your free copy of the Independent Investor eBook here.
See if you can answer these four questions:
- In 1950, a good computer cost $1 million. In 1990, it cost $5000. Today it costs $1000.
Question: What will a good computer cost 50 years from today?- Democracy as a form of government has been spreading for centuries. In the 1940s, Japan changed from an empire to a democracy. In the 1980s, the Russian Soviet system collapsed, and now the country holds multi-party elections. In the 1990s, China adopted free-market reforms. In March of this year, Iraq, a former dictatorship, celebrated a new democratic constitution.
Question: Fifty years from today, will a larger or smaller percentage of the world’s population live under democracy?- In the decade from 1983 to 1993, there were ten months of recession in the U.S.; in the subsequent decade from 1993 to 2003, there were 8 months of recession. In the first period, expansion was underway 92 percent of the time; in the second period, it was 93 percent.
Question: What percentage of the time will expansion take place during the decade from 2003 to 2013?- In 1970, Reserve Funds kicked off the hugely successful money market fund industry. In 1973, the CBOE introduced options on stocks. In 1977, Michael Milken invented junk bond financing, which became a major category of investment. In 1982, stock index futures and options on futures began to trade. In 1983, options on stock indexes became available. Keogh plans, IRAs and 401k’s have brought tax breaks to the investing public. The mutual fund industry, a small segment of the financial world in the late 1970s, has attracted the public’s invested wealth to the point that there are more mutual funds than there are NYSE stocks. Futures contracts on individual stocks have just begun trading.
Question: Over the next 50 years, will the number and sophistication of financial services increase or decrease?Observe that I asked you a microeconomic question, a political question, a macroeconomic question and a financial question.
Trend Extrapolation
If you are like most people, you extrapolated your answers from the trends of previous data. You expect cheaper computers, more democracy, an economic expansion rate in the 90-95 percent range, and an increase in financial sophistication.It appears sensible to answer such questions by extrapolation because people default to physics when predicting social trends. They think, “Momentum will remain constant unless acted on by an outside force.” This mode of thought is deeply embedded in our minds because it has tremendous evolutionary advantages. When Og threw a rock at Ugg back in the cave days, Ugg ducked. He ducked because his mind had inherited and/or learned the consequences of the Law of Conservation of Momentum. The rock would not veer off course because there was nothing between the two men to act upon it, and rocks do not have minds of their own. Earlier animals that incorporated responses to the laws of physics lived; those that didn’t died, and their genes were weeded out of the gene pool. The Law of Conservation of Momentum makes possible our modern technological world. People rely on it every day. Despite its use in so many areas, however, it is inapplicable to predicting social change. For most people in most circumstances, the proper answer to each of the above questions is, “I don�t know.” (Socionomics can give you an edge in social prediction, but that’s another story.)
The most certain aspect of social history is dramatic change. To get a feel for how useless — even counterproductive — extrapolation can be in social forecasting, consider these questions:
- It is 1886. Project the American railroad industry.
- It is 1970. Project the future of China.
- It is 1963. Project the cost of medical care in the U.S.
- It is 1969. Project the U.S. space program.
- It is 100 A.D. Project the future of Roman civilization.
In 1886, you would have envisioned a future landscape combed with rail lines connecting every city, town and neighborhood. Small trains would roll around to your home to pick you up, and a network of rail lines would help deliver you to your destination efficiently and cheaply. Super-fast trains would make cross-country runs. You could eat, read or sleep along the way.
Is that what happened? Would anyone have predicted, indeed did anyone predict, that trains in 2004 would often be going slower than they did in 1886, that they would routinely jump the tracks, that they would be inefficient, that they would have little food and few sleeper cars, that the equipment would be old and worn out?
In 1970, the Communist party was entrenched in China. Over 35 million people had been slaughtered, culminating in the Cultural Revolution in which Chinese youths helped exterminate people just because they were smart, successful or capitalist. Would anyone have imagined that China, in just over a single generation, would be out-producing the United States, which was then the world’s premier industrial giant?
In 1963, medical care was cheap and accessible. Doctors made house calls for $20. Hospitals were so accommodating that new mothers typically stayed for a week or more before being sent home, and it was affordable. Would anyone have guessed that forty years later, pills would sell for $2 apiece, a surgical procedure and a week in the hospital could cost one-third of the average annual wage, and people would have to take out expensive insurance policies just in case they got sick?
In the space of just 30 years, rockets had gone from the experimental stage to such sophistication that one of them brought men to the moon and back. In 1969, many people projected the U.S. space program over the next 30 years to include colonies on the moon and trips to Mars. After all, it was only sensible, wasn’t it? By the laws of physics, it was. But in the 35 years since 1969, the space program has relentlessly regressed.
In 100 A.D., would you have predicted that the most powerful culture in the world would be reduced to rubble in a bit over three centuries? If Rome had had a stock market, it would have gone essentially to zero.
Futurists nearly always extrapolate past trends, and they are nearly always wrong. You cannot use extrapolation under the physics paradigm to predict social trends, including macroeconomic, political and financial trends. The most certain aspect of social history is dramatic change. More interesting, social change is a self-induced change. Rocks cannot change trajectory on their own, but societies can and do change direction, all the time.
 | Learn to Think Independently — Download Your Free Independent Investor eBook “The Stock Market is Not Physics” is just one report in the more than 100 page, two-volume Independent Investor eBook. You’ll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International’s 30-year history; you’ll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today’s tumultuous market. |
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Stock Market Is Not Physics: Part I. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
How Do You Get from Dow Theory to Elliott Wave Analysis?
Happy 160th Birthday, Charles Dow
By Elliott Wave International
If you are interested in Elliott wave analysis, odds are that you have also heard of Dow Theory, whose best and longest-lived proponent is Richard Russell. (Best wishes to Richard as he recovers his health.) This excerpt from Prechter’s Perspective explains how Elliott wave analysis and Dow Theory are connected. We wanted to run it now in honor of the 160th anniversary of the birth of Charles Dow, which the Market Technicians Association celebrates on Wall Street on Thursday, November 3, 2011.
* * * * *
Excerpted from Prechter’s Perspective, 2004
Q: What was R. N. Elliott looking for in the stock market data in the late 1930s? Did he have a model or theory about price behavior?
Bob Prechter: Elliott had no basic premises, just a mind that was open to the idea that the market might be patterned, which he may have adopted from the then relatively new Dow Theory, which was a set of very few and far more general observations about market behavior. Though the Dow Theorists formed only very rough concepts, they broke ground, tremendous ground, in merely coming up with their observations that market behavior was non-random and tied to investor psychology. That was probably the germ of the idea that kicked off Elliott’s research.
Q: What was his procedure?
Bob Prechter: He did what every good researcher must do. First, he recorded the data that reality provided. He looked at the movements on chart paper and wondered, “Can I find forms that occur over and over again?” His answer was, “Yes.” He found that they occurred on hourly moves, daily moves, weekly, yearly. He even plotted moves that were decades long and noticed that they were following the same form. Likewise, the specific market did not matter. It could be the stock market, the gold price, interest rates or any other market. Then he organized the data, which was his talent. He began recognizing recurrences in the data, so it became clear that there were indeed repetitive patterns, which he ultimately organized into concepts.
Q: What exactly is Dow Theory and how does it relate to the Wave Principle?
Bob Prechter: The Dow Theory was developed by Charles Dow in the late 1800s. One of the tenets of Dow Theory is that, in general, a primary bull market runs in three upward phrases. In the initial phase, there is a lot of disbelief, and the markets are at very depressed levels. The middle phase is a kind of recognition phase when people begin to realize that the fundamentals are improving, and the markets are rising in harmony with them. The final stage is when the euphoria and the gambling come in. Elliott discovered that this basic formula of three steps up, separated by two intervening corrections, making five waves, was applicable not just to a primary bull market but to any degree of advance. He then observed that corrections take a different path: a three-wave shape or variation thereof. Then he observed that these cycles were not independent of each other but part of the market’s larger structure, which in turn developed according to these principles.
Q: It is through Charles Collins that we know about the genesis of the theory. He more or less sponsored Elliott’s introduction to Wall Street and helped him think through various aspects of becoming professional. In fact, he was the ghostwriter of a good deal of Elliott’s first important book, The Wave Principle, which came out in 1938. Did Collins make any contribution to the theory itself?
Bob Prechter: Yes. The catalyst for tying the Wave Principle to grander natural forces was Collins’s discovery that the number of waves in Elliott’s idealized pattern reflected the Fibonacci sequence. Collins wrote Elliott during the development of the theory and said in essence, “You ought to read this book by Jay Hambidge on Fibonacci ratios and spirals, because I noticed that when you count the waves through lower and lower degrees of trend, you find the Fibonacci sequence.” That sent Elliott off on the track to his grand conclusion. It is comforting to know that he did not start with the Fibonacci sequence or a theory based on it and then force nature to it. Nature showed its law, and these two men observed it.
Q: Is Fibonacci really that crucial to the theory?
Bob Prechter: It is not crucial to the what, but it is crucial to the why. First, Elliott observed the Wave Principle operate. Then he took the next step and asked, “Why does it exist?” He concluded that there must be some progression that human beings go through as they move overall from a state of deep pessimism to extreme optimism and back again, because they continue to trace out these patterns. His eventual conclusion was that it was a natural law of human behavior, that human beings were part of the natural world, and just like trees and wolves and lemmings and anything else you can name, they have certain ways of acting. It shows up in the charts vividly, making it clear that mass psychology is structured. The unifying conclusion, that mankind’s progress follows a law of nature exhibited by countless forms of life, is a profound and reasonable explanation that fits the facts.
 | Learn about R.N. Elliott’s Wave Analysis with The Basic Tutorial — Free from Elliott Wave InternationalNow you know how R.N. Elliott did his research. Next, learn how to analyze price charts using his form of analysis. The Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial is a 10-lesson comprehensive course with the same content you’d receive in a formal training class — but you can learn at your own pace and review the material as many times as you like! Get 10 FREE Lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle that Will Change the Way You Invest Forever >> |
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How Do You Get from Dow Theory to Elliott Wave Analysis?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
A Four-Chart Lesson in Spotting Trade Setups
By Elliott Wave International
You can find low-risk, high-probability trading opportunities by trading with the trend. The trick is to find the end of market corrections, so you can position yourself for the next move in the direction of the trend.
This excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 47-page eBook How to Spot Trading Opportunities explains where to find bullish and bearish trade setups in your charts and how to zero-in on these opportunities. If this lesson interests you, the full 47-page eBook is free through July 6.
On the left-hand side of the illustration below, there are two bullish trade setups. As traders, we want to wait for the wave (2) correction to be complete so we can catch the move up in wave (3) – this is the trade. What we are trying to do in this bullish trade setup is anticipate the potential for profits on the buy-side as prices move up in wave (3). Another bullish trade setup is at the end of wave (4).
As traders, we are looking to buy the pullback and position ourselves within the direction of the larger up-trend. Remember, three-wave moves are corrections, which means that they are countertrend structures. On the other hand, five-wave moves define the larger trend. As traders, we want to determine what the trend is and trade in the direction of the trend. Our buying opportunity to rejoin the trend is whenever the trend pauses and forms a correction.
Now, let’s look at the right-hand side of the illustration where we see two bearish setups. When a five-wave move is complete, it is retraced in three waves as a correction. The end of the five-wave move presents the first trading opportunity that we can take advantage of the short side (or the sell side) as the wave (A) down begins.
Notice the second bearish trade setup gives us another shorting opportunity as wave (B) tops.
So, within the classic wave pattern of five waves up and three waves down, we have four high-probability trading opportunities in which we are either positioning ourselves in the direction of the trend or identifying termination points of a trend. I want to share with you some tricks I have picked up over the years about how to analyze corrective waves and their termination points. The single most important thing I’ve learned from analyzing corrections is that corrective or countertrend price action is usually contained by parallel lines.
As shown above, draw the parallel lines by beginning at the origin of wave A and going to the extreme of wave B. You draw a parallel of that line off the extreme of wave A. So basically you have a small, slightly angled downward price channel. This will show you the containment region for wave C. It also shows you an area toward the bottom of the lower trend line where you can expect a reversal in price.
Here is another example. Again, you draw the parallel lines off the origin of wave A, the extreme of wave A and the extreme of wave B.
Toward the upper end of the upper trend line, you will usually see a reversal in price.
This example shows how countertrend price action is contained by parallel lines in the British pound, 60-minute, all sessions. Why is it important to know parallel lines contain the corrective or countertrend price action? Number one, it will increase your confidence that you are indeed labeling a countertrend move properly. Number two, it identifies areas where you will likely see prices reverse. For example, we see this reversal up near the top.
 | This brief trading lesson is just a small example of the opportunities you can find once you learn to identify key market patterns. Learn more in your free 47-page eBook, How to Spot Trading Opportunities. This valuable eBook is regularly $79, but you can get it free through July 6. Download your free copy of How to Spot Trading Opportunities now. |
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
How To Use Fibonacci Ratios in the Real World
By Elliott Wave International
What tools help you with the difficult task of identifying the market trend, riding it, and getting out before it reverses?
Consider Fibonacci ratios: Mathematical proportions by which moves on a market chart relate to each other. Fibonacci mathematics is an integral part of Elliott wave analysis; Frost & Prechter’s classic “Elliott Wave Principle — Key to Market Behavior” has an entire chapter on it.
And here’s an excerpt from a free Club EWI report on the subject. Enjoy — and for details on how to read the entire report free, look below.
How To Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
(excerpt; full copy here)
By Jeffrey Kennedy
EWI Senior Tutorial Instructor
EWI Senior Commodity Analyst
It’s hard to imagine a wrong way to apply Fibonacci ratios or multiples to financial markets, and new ways are being tested every day. Let’s look at just some of the ways that I apply Fibonacci math in my own analysis. …
Elliotticians often calculate Fibonacci extensions to project the length of Elliott waves. For example, third waves are most commonly a 1.618 Fibonacci multiple of wave one, and waves C and A of corrective wave patterns often reach equality (Figures 7-3 and 7-4).
One approach I like and have used for a number of years is a “reverse Fibonacci” application… (Continue reading this free report now with a free Club EWI password.)
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How To Use Fibonacci Ratios in the Real World. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Video: The Versatility of the Wave Principle
Video: The Versatility of the Wave Principle
Timeless Trading Lesson
In the video below, EWI senior analyst and trading instructor Jeffrey Kennedy shows how the Wave Principle can help you identify a high-probability trade set up regardless of the direction of the larger trend.
This timeless educational video was taken from Jeffrey’s renowned Trader’s Classroom series and is being re-released because of its valuable lesson. If a few minutes isn’t enough,
get more FREE practical trading lessons from Jeffrey Kennedy in his latest eBook.
It’s FreeWeek at EWI: Get charts, analysis and forecasts of Asian-Pacific and European markets
Greetings,
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just announced the beginning of their wildly popular FreeWeek event, where they throw open the doors for non-subscribers to test-drive some of their most popular premium services — at ZERO cost to you.
You can access EWI’s near-term analysis of Asian-Pacific and European markets from EWI’s Short Term Update services (combined valued at $98/month) right now through noon Eastern time Friday, Sept. 10.
The timing couldn’t be better. Editor Chris Carolan has been on top of the recent market action in Asian-Pacific and European markets. This unique event only lasts a short time, so don’t delay!
Regards,
Alan
About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.
Why weekly charts work
Many traders get so involved with the market on a daily or even an intraday basis, that they somehow lose out on the bigger picture. Weekly charts are enormously helpful in giving clues to the future direction of the market.
In today’s video we examine one of the biggest markets in the world, the S&P 500, using a weekly chart. The video runs about two minutes in length and I think you will find it both educational and informative.
As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.
Enjoy the video and be sure to share your thoughts.
http://www.ino.com/info/620/CD3336/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub
Slicing the Neckline: A Classic Technical Pattern Agrees with the Elliott Wave Count
By Elliott Wave International
In the August issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist, market forecaster Robert Prechter alerted readers that the U.S. stock market was slicing the neckline of a classic head-and-shoulders pattern in technical analysis, and that this may send the market into critical condition.
Prechter said that when the Elliott wave count and a head-and-shoulders pattern are saying the same thing about the stock market, it’s best to pay attention.
Here’s how the August issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, the sister publication to Prechter’s Theorist, described the head and shoulders pattern unfolding in the stock market:
“The weekly Dow chart [below] shows the development of an intermediate-term, head-and-shoulders pattern from the January high at 10,729.90 to the present. The January high marks the left shoulder, the April 26 high at 11,258 is the head, and the right shoulder is now ending. The April [Theorist] discussed the pertinent characteristics that Edwards and Magee used to define this technical pattern … all apply to the current formation. Observe how weekly stock trading volume has contracted during the development of the right shoulder, a necessary trait of this pattern. The downward-sloping neckline — exactly as on the big ten year pattern — displays market weakness, which is consistent with our interpretation of the wave structure.”
This chart shows the head-and-shoulders pattern.
Here’s what Robert Prechter himself said in a recent Elliott Wave Theorist:
“Generally, when the neckline slopes downward, the right shoulder does not rise to the level of the left shoulder …”
Please look at the chart again — then re-read Prechter’s quote.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Slicing the Neckline: When the Market May Go into “Critical Condition”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
