Comex Silver (SI)
Silver’s fall from 17.69 extended further to as low as 15.95 last week. Break of 16.06 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 13.495 to 17.69 at 16.088) serves as the first alert that whole rise from 12.435 has completed at 17.69 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline could now be seen to 15.185 resistance turned support next. On the upside, above 16.41 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk remains on the downside as long as 17.345 resistance holds. However, break of 17.345 will indicate that recent rally is indeed still in progress for another high above 17.69 before completion.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 8.4 is still in progress and could probably continue towards next key resistance level at 19.55. Nevertheless, we’re not seeing a clear impulsive structure from 8.4 yet and hence, we’d treat such rise as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. In other words, current rise from 8.4 is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring at least one more medium term fall. On the downside, break of 12.435 support is needed to confirm that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and hence, we’d prefer the case that it’s just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
