Comex Silver (SI)
Silver’s rally extended further to as high as 17.69 last week before retreating mildly. Considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hour MACD and RSI, a short term top might be in place. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidation could be seen to bring pull back to 16.06 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 13.495 to 17.69 at 16.088). But downside should be contained there and bring rally resumption. Above 17.69 will target 19.55 key resistance next. However, break of 16.06 will indicate that whole rise from 12.435 might have completed too and will bring deeper pull back to 13.495/15.185 support zone.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 8.4 is still in progress and could probably continue towards next key resistance level at 19.55. Nevertheless, we’re not seeing a clear impulsive structure from 8.4 yet and hence, we’d treat such rise as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. In other words, current rise from 8.4 is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring at least one more medium term fall. On the downside, break of 12.435 support is needed to confirm that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and hence, we’d prefer the case that it’s just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
