Comex Gold (GC)
Gold edged higher to 1025.8 last week but lost upside momentum ahead of 1033.9 key resistance. With bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, a short term might be in place. Initial bias is neutral this week and we’d expect some pull back towards 983.2 support. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1025.8 at 967.4 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, while another rise might be seen, it now looks like 1033.9 key resistance will hold on first attempt and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 high will confirm this case and should target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. While some pull back might be seen in near term before decisive break of 1033.9, downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring rally resumption. However, note that a break of 931.3 dampen the bullish view and suggest that rise from 681 has completed. This will indicate indicate that such rise is merely part of the consolidation pattern that started at 1033.9.
In the long term picture, long term rally from 1999 low of 253 turned into consolidation after completing a five wave sequence to 1033.9 in 2008. Such consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed in form of expanding triangle to 681 already and rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 should confirm this case and target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
