Comex Silver (SI)
Silver’s rally extended further to as high as 17.015 last week and met mentioned target of 11.725 to 16.25 from 12.435 at 16.96. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise could still be seen. Sustained trading above 16.96 will target next key resistance at 19.55. On the downside, though, break of 16.06 minor support will suggest that a short term top is formed, probably bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would probably be seen to 13.495/15.185 support zone.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 8.4 is still in progress and could probably continue towards next key resistance level at 19.55. Nevertheless, we’re not seeing a clear impulsive structure from 8.4 yet and hence, we’d treat such rise as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. In other words, current rise from 8.4 is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring at least one more medium term fall. On the downside, break of 12.435 support is needed to confirm that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and hence, we’d prefer the case that it’s just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
