Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil’s fall from 73.16 resumes and is now back pressing 68.02 support. As discussed before, break of 68.02 will suggests that fall from 75.0 is resuming and affirm that case that crude oil has already topped out. Further decline should then be seen towards 65.23 cluster support next (100% projection of 75.0 to 67.05 from 73.16 at 65.21). On the upside, break of 71.77 resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside and bring retest of 75.0 high instead.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already and the signals are so far conflicting. On the one hand, crude oil is still trading above medium term rising trending and thus the rally is still intact. On the other hand, crude has clearly lost upside momentum as seen in bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. We’ll stay neutral and look forward to a breakout from recent range for guidance.
On the downside, note that a break of 67.05 support will indicate that fall from 75.0 is resuming. By that time, the medium term trend line should be taken out firmly and will solidify the case that rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Deeper decline should then be seen in such case to 58.32 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 75.0 will indicate that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
