Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil’s strong rebound from 65.05 is still in progress and breaches 70 level. The impulsive look of the rebound dampens our bearish view and in turn argue that fall from 75.0 might be completed with three waves down already. We’ll stay neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 68.10 minor support will indicate that rebound from 65.05 has completed and will revive the case that fall from 75.0 is still in progress. Retest of 65.05 should be seen first. On the upside, however, break of 73.16 resistance will indicate that fall from 75.0 has completed and will turn focus back to this high.
In the bigger picture, the lack of follow through selling so far dampens the bearish view that crude oil’s medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Nevertheless, risk remains on the downside as long as 75.0 resistance holds. A break below 65.05 support will solidify the case the crude oil has topped out in medium term again. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to test on 58.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 75.0 at 59.03) first. However, a break of 75.0 will indicate that rise from 33.2 has resumed for 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) before completion.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
