Alan's Finance Blog

Free U.S. market analysis from the world’s largest market forecasting firm

Dear reader,

I just received a rare opportunity to offer you free U.S. market analysis from the world’s largest market forecasting firm. I strongly encourage you to consider this offer. Other than the fact that Elliott Wave International has fully-prepared their subscribers to take advantage of the recent free fall in US stocks, they never offer free trials to their services. Don’t miss this opportunity to find out what’s next for the US markets.

Check out the details below.

From the Desk Of: Robert Folsom
Date: August 4th, 2011
Subject:

This brief message is all about you. To start with, however, I have to say something “about me.” I’ve been with Elliott Wave International since 1992: That’s a good long time, long enough to have seen lots of days when our staff did all it could to deliver forecasts that prepared subscribers for what’s next.

Yet today stands above virtually all those others. I can scarcely recall a day when we’ve been able to offer 1) So much, 2) So immediately, that is 3) So urgent.

Here is where it’s all about you. Earlier this year, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) specifically forecast the juncture we’ve arrived at now — it said most people believe the markets and economy are recovered and growing. But there were TWO parts to that forecast; the time has come for the second part to unfold. You’re a few keystrokes away from what EWFF is saying now for free (new issue posts tomorrow, Aug. 5).

What’s more, you’re a few keystrokes from reading Robert Prechter’s current commentary in The Elliott Wave Theorist, again, for free. He provides you with a context to understand the events of the past week and month, which you simply cannot find elsewhere (you won’t need to wonder why the blue chips are now down on the year for 2011 — you’ll know why).

Finally there’s the forecast in The Short Term Update: Earlier this week we alerted subscribers to action in the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials which broke below critical price levels. Perhaps you’ve heard some of the chatter on news and financial websites in the past 48 hours about a “head and shoulders” pattern. Yet Short Term Update subscribers got THAT news two weeks ago, back on July 20 — along with a specific price level that would confirm the forecast.

This is a wealth of forecasting; you can have it immediately; and the moment is indeed urgent. I’ve never seen a day quite like it.

My colleagues here at EWI have put together a two-week free trial to all three of the services I mention above. Together, they we call them the Financial Forecast Service and they deliver the most comprehensive coverage of the US markets available anywhere. Now, if you are already familiar with EWI, you know that we NEVER offer free trials to these services. But you must act now as this offer ends Wednesday, August 10.

Find out what’s next for the US markets.

Thanks for reading,

Robert Folsom
Elliott Wave International

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.

Questrade stock broker offers free technical analysis newsletter

Hi there.

My current favorite stock brokerage firm – Questrade – is offering a free technical analysis newsletter delivered by email five days a week (Tuesday through Saturday). The report features bullish and bearish stocks from the U.S. and Canadian markets, and analyzes them using classic price chart patterns. Bear in mind though that to get the free technical analysis report you have to become one of their client. But that’s not such a bad idea really as I found them to be a pretty good brokerage firm. I used to be with the now defunct (bought out by Scotiabank) e-trade Canada, and I switched to Questrade because of the lower transaction fees and I have been pretty happy so far.

I guess I should also mention that Questrade is a Canadian stock broker so I’m afraid this free newletter offer is available only to Canadians. They really should open up a US subsidiary too!

Thanks for your attention.

Cheers,

Alan

European Bank Stress Test: “It’s not that 8 failed…but that 82 passed!!”

By Elliott Wave International

The European Banking Authority announced Friday that 8 banks had failed their stress tests and 16 more had narrowly passed. But the results drew much criticism from analysts, who said that the stress test is not strict enough.

Indeed, this is something that European Financial Forecast readers have known since the first stress test last summer.

For a unique perspective on Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, we invite you to read a free 6-page report by Elliott Wave International’s European Financial Forecast editor Brian Whitmer, “Credit Crisis in Europe.” Brian has been anticipating and tracking the credit contagion across Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and other EU nations for months.

Below is a quick excerpt from this report, written just after the first stress test. For details on how to read it in full now, look below.
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Credit Crisis in Europe: How the Stability of an Entire Region is Teetering on the Edge of a Major Collapse

By EWI’s European Financial Forecast editor Brian Whitmer (excerpt)

Panic Now and Avoid the Rush — July 30, 2010
The market’s collective sigh of relief is also reflected in authorities’ stress testing of 91 European banks. In case you missed last Friday’s results, their message is clear: relax. The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) gave passing grades to nearly every bank on its list. The group, for example, passed both Irish banks and all four UK banks that it evaluated. The CEBS gave clean bills of health to all four Portuguese banks, all five Italian banks, and five out of six Greek banks that it analyzed. Even with share prices that sit 29%-66% beneath their 2009 countertrend highs, the CEBS says that the Bank of Ireland, Piraeus Bank, Banco Popolare, and Banco Santander are all in good shape. In fact, just seven of the 91 banks failed to make the grade. Five were in Spain, one in Greece, and one, Germany’s Hypo Real Estate, is entirely owned by the German government anyway. Everyone else — 84 institutions in all — are supposed to be strong enough to withstand another economic shock.

It’s not so much the stellar results that expose the optimism of a Primary degree rally, but rather the Banking Committee’s stress tests themselves. They are notable primarily because they failed to test for any real stress in the first place. As the chart shows, the Committee’s “adverse scenario” regarding economic performance assumed a mere 3% deviation from the European Commission’s GDP forecast. Another test looked at banks’ resilience to a sovereign risk shock, yet the analysis merely used conditions similar to those of May 2010. In other words, just like the UK budget office, the CEBS is utilizing a woefully diluted version of the economic deterioration that is about to grip the continent.
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FREE REPORT: Discover what Europe’s debt crisis means for the future of the continent and your investments. Get your FREE 6-page report filled with unique analysis on Europe, the PIIGS and the sovereign debt crisis.EWI’s European Financial Forecast editor Brian Whitmer gives you the context for what’s happening in Europe and gets you up to speed on the reality of the situation. Download your free report now.

A Four-Chart Lesson in Spotting Trade Setups

By Elliott Wave International

You can find low-risk, high-probability trading opportunities by trading with the trend. The trick is to find the end of market corrections, so you can position yourself for the next move in the direction of the trend.

This excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s free 47-page eBook How to Spot Trading Opportunities explains where to find bullish and bearish trade setups in your charts and how to zero-in on these opportunities. If this lesson interests you, the full 47-page eBook is free through July 6.

On the left-hand side of the illustration below, there are two bullish trade setups. As traders, we want to wait for the wave (2) correction to be complete so we can catch the move up in wave (3) – this is the trade. What we are trying to do in this bullish trade setup is anticipate the potential for profits on the buy-side as prices move up in wave (3). Another bullish trade setup is at the end of wave (4).

As traders, we are looking to buy the pullback and position ourselves within the direction of the larger up-trend. Remember, three-wave moves are corrections, which means that they are countertrend structures. On the other hand, five-wave moves define the larger trend. As traders, we want to determine what the trend is and trade in the direction of the trend. Our buying opportunity to rejoin the trend is whenever the trend pauses and forms a correction.

Now, let’s look at the right-hand side of the illustration where we see two bearish setups. When a five-wave move is complete, it is retraced in three waves as a correction. The end of the five-wave move presents the first trading opportunity that we can take advantage of the short side (or the sell side) as the wave (A) down begins.

Notice the second bearish trade setup gives us another shorting opportunity as wave (B) tops.

So, within the classic wave pattern of five waves up and three waves down, we have four high-probability trading opportunities in which we are either positioning ourselves in the direction of the trend or identifying termination points of a trend. I want to share with you some tricks I have picked up over the years about how to analyze corrective waves and their termination points. The single most important thing I’ve learned from analyzing corrections is that corrective or countertrend price action is usually contained by parallel lines.

As shown above, draw the parallel lines by beginning at the origin of wave A and going to the extreme of wave B. You draw a parallel of that line off the extreme of wave A. So basically you have a small, slightly angled downward price channel. This will show you the containment region for wave C. It also shows you an area toward the bottom of the lower trend line where you can expect a reversal in price.

Here is another example. Again, you draw the parallel lines off the origin of wave A, the extreme of wave A and the extreme of wave B.

Toward the upper end of the upper trend line, you will usually see a reversal in price.

This example shows how countertrend price action is contained by parallel lines in the British pound, 60-minute, all sessions. Why is it important to know parallel lines contain the corrective or countertrend price action? Number one, it will increase your confidence that you are indeed labeling a countertrend move properly. Number two, it identifies areas where you will likely see prices reverse. For example, we see this reversal up near the top.

This brief trading lesson is just a small example of the opportunities you can find once you learn to identify key market patterns. Learn more in your free 47-page eBook, How to Spot Trading Opportunities. This valuable eBook is regularly $79, but you can get it free through July 6. Download your free copy of How to Spot Trading Opportunities now.

Questrade stock broker giving away free iPad 2s

Hi there.

My current favorite stock brokerage firm – Questrade – is giving away 10 free iPad 2 tablets! I just found out about this several days ago. A bit late but still not late enough to get in on the contest. Personally I can’t get in cause I already have an account, but if you’re living in Canada and you’re looking for a stock/forex broker with the lowest fees I’d suggest you have a look at Questrade. Now to qualify for this iPad giveaway you have to open a equity/forex account with a minium of $10,000 (CAD) before May 31′st. If you do you’ll be automatically entered to win 1 out of 10 iPad 2 tablets.

Please make sure that you Login to the myQuestrade control panel to open your new account or to complete an application in progress. Use offer code iwin11 to qualify.

Folks please make sure you use “iwin11″ as the offer code!

I wish you all good luck. I hope you end up winning an iPad 2.

Cheers,
Alan

Download 14 Critical Lessons Every Trader Should Know

Dear Trader,

You know how difficult it can be to successfully trade the markets. And although the volatility that we’re seeing lately offers great opportunities, it can also add to a trader’s frustration. That’s why our friends at Elliott Wave International are releasing one of their most popular trading eBooks, The Best of Trader’s Classroom, free through May 16.

Since 1999, EWI Senior Analyst and trading instructor Jeffrey Kennedy has produced dozens of Trader’s Classroom lessons exclusively for his subscribers. EWI reviewed over 100 lessons and selected these 14 that offer the most critical information that every trader should know.

Now you can download these valuable lessons in their 45-page Best of Trader’s Classroom eBook, free.

You’ll learn:

• Why Emotional Discipline Is Key to Success
• When to Place a Trade
• How to Set Protective Stops
• What It Takes to be a Consistently Successful Trader
• And 10 more!

Download Your Free The Best of Trader’s Classroom eBook Today
(Don’t hesitate! This offer expires May 16.)

Regards,

Alan

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.

How To Use Fibonacci Ratios in the Real World

By Elliott Wave International

What tools help you with the difficult task of identifying the market trend, riding it, and getting out before it reverses?

Consider Fibonacci ratios: Mathematical proportions by which moves on a market chart relate to each other. Fibonacci mathematics is an integral part of Elliott wave analysis; Frost & Prechter’s classic “Elliott Wave Principle — Key to Market Behavior” has an entire chapter on it.

And here’s an excerpt from a free Club EWI report on the subject. Enjoy — and for details on how to read the entire report free, look below.

How To Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
(excerpt; full copy here)
By Jeffrey Kennedy
EWI Senior Tutorial Instructor
EWI Senior Commodity Analyst

It’s hard to imagine a wrong way to apply Fibonacci ratios or multiples to financial markets, and new ways are being tested every day. Let’s look at just some of the ways that I apply Fibonacci math in my own analysis. …

Elliotticians often calculate Fibonacci extensions to project the length of Elliott waves. For example, third waves are most commonly a 1.618 Fibonacci multiple of wave one, and waves C and A of corrective wave patterns often reach equality (Figures 7-3 and 7-4).

One approach I like and have used for a number of years is a “reverse Fibonacci” application… (Continue reading this free report now with a free Club EWI password.)

What Most People Don’t Realize About The Fed’s Superpowers

Bob Prechter’s Conquer The Crash reveals whether the Fed really can rescue the US economy

By Elliott Wave International

Since its creation in 1913, the primary intended role of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has been that of protector. In theory, the central bank was bestowed with the power to shape monetary policy in a way that would keep both booms and busts in check. The two main tools at its disposal — interest rates and money creation — would provide a “ceiling of normalcy” above expansions AND a “net of safety” below contractions.

To this day, the financial mainstream holds great faith in the Fed’s ability to fulfill its save-the-day duties — as these recent news items make plain:

• “Why Raising Fed Funds Rate Is Positive For Equities.” (Seeking Alpha)
• “Fed’s Moves Lift All Asset Classes.” (Associated Press)
• “US Stocks Erasing Losses: The aggressive moves of the Fed have been an important driver for the stabilization of stock prices.” (Bloomberg)

But of all the variables the Fed creators took into account, there’s one glaring factor they neglected to consider: Namely, it cannot force consumers to spend, creditors to lend, or businesses to borrow. The events of 2007-2009 “credit crunch” and the subsequent “Great Recession” made that obvious. Remember how the government was upset at banks for sitting on the bailout funds instead of lending them out to consumers? And consumers weren’t exactly lining up on the street to get a loan, either.

The Fed’s inability to change social mood is the central theme in Chapter 13 of EWI President Bob Prechter’s NY Times business bestseller book Conquer the Crash. There, Bob describes the Fed’s strategy of lowering the federal funds rate to stimulate spending to be as effective as “pushing on a string.” Writes Bob:

“The primary basis for today’s belief in perpetual prosperity and inflation with an occasional recession is what I call the ‘Potent Directors Fallacy.’ It is nearly impossible to find a treatise on macroeconomics today that does not assert or assume that the Federal Reserve Board has learned to control both our money and our economy. Many believe that it also possesses the immense power to manipulate the stock market. The very idea that it can do these things is false.”

And so begins one of the most groundbreaking studies into the very real INABILITY of the Fed to fell the great bears of economic declines, or to feed the great bulls of economic vigor.

The best part is, you can read Chapter 13 of Conquer the Crash in its entirety FREE via a Club EWI resource “You Can Survive And Prosper In A Deflationary Depression.” The free report also includes SEVEN other chapters of Conquer the Crash that shed equal light on some of the most misleading notions of mainstream economic wisdom.

The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders

A must-read FREE report for investors in fixed-income markets like Treasury bonds, municipal bonds or high-yield bonds

By Elliott Wave International

Elliott wave analysis can warn you of trend changes when the rest of the investment public least expects a market reversal. With that in mind, we have created a new report for our free Club EWI members: “The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders.”

In this free report, you get some of the latest commentary on fixed-income markets adapted from various Elliott Wave International’s publications, including 2010 issues of Robert Prechter’s monthly Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.

Enjoy this excerpt — and for details on how to read this important Club EWI report free, today, look below.

The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders
(excerpt)

The Elliott Wave Theorist — October 2010
(By Robert Prechter, EWI president)

…History shows that investors have been attracted like moths to a flame to four consecutive pyres: the NASDAQ in 2000, real estate in 2006, the blue chips in 2007 and commodities in 2008. Now they are flitting across the veranda to a mesmerizing blue flame: high yield bonds. Bonds pay high yields when the issuers are in deep trouble and cannot otherwise attract investment capital. The public is chasing a large return on capital without considering return of it. …

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast — October 2010
(By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall)

The rise in optimism since early 2009 has allowed corporations to issue the lowest grade debt at a record rate, even more than in the middle of the incredible expanding debt bubble of the mid-2000s. The annual total of $189.9 billion to date is a record, and the entire fourth quarter still lies ahead.

This is a stunning testimony to just how desperate investors are for the returns they grew so accustomed to during the old bull market. The Moody’s BAA-to-Treasury spread (see chart in the free report — Ed.) has been widening since [April] and has made a series of lower highs in August and again in September. This behavior reveals an emerging preference for perceived safer debt even as junk bond issuance races higher. It is a critical non-confirmation…

Will Grains Gain OR Wane? Find Out For FREE

Futures Junctures Free Week has begun
September 16, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

Over the past few months, leading grain prices have climbed up the commodity wall like a “mile-a-minute” kudzu vine. From late June to early August, the big three grain markets (wheat, corn, and soybeans) soared 40%-plus in a coordinated rally to multi-year highs before leveling off.

The question on the minds of market participants is simple: Is the grains’ uptrend set to end?

Well, according to the mainstream experts, the answer is a definite NO — and an equally definite YES. See, according to recent headlines, grain prices are as likely headed for strong gains as they are for a world of pain. On this, following news items capture the very conflicting grain complex picture:

• “Wheat futures decline, fall most in two weeks after Egypt looks elsewhere for supplies… We have a bearish tone.” (Wall Street Journal)
• “Wheat Soars Despite Reassurance On German Crop.” (AP)
• “Corn Above $5-per bushel mark; prices expected to pull back.” (Cattle Network)
• “Corn (Soybeans) Still King… the bull market is intact for now.” (Farm Forum)
• “Grain Markets Are Hot: But Is It Too Late? One money manager believes the dance will soon be coming to an end.” (Minyanville)

I rest my case.

(Near-Term Opportunities On The House: On Wednesday September 16, EWI launched its famous Futures Junctures Free Week,providing all Club EWI members with instant, no-cost access to comprehensive near-, and long-term commodity analysis. Sign up today and take advantage of this amazing offer.)

Fortunately, there’s a quick and easy alternative to the mixed messages of the mainstream: the September 14 Daily Futures Junctures. In that publication, EWI’s chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy presents in depth analysis, labeled price charts, and live video commentary on all three grain markets — a total of 12 charts in all.

The best part is, you can get instant access to Daily Futures Junctures, along with its long-term sister Monthly Futures Junctures at the unbelievable discount of 100% off. This complimentary admission to one of EWI’s most exclusive subscriber resources is the benefit of Futures Junctures Service Free Week. The event runs from 5 pm (EST) on Wednesday September 15 to September 23. Sign up today and start taking advantage of this amazing opportunity.