Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Despite breaching 50% retracement of 4.16 to 2.409 at 3.28, Natural gas’ sharp fall on Friday is still inline with the view that rebound from 2.409 is merely a correction to fall from 4.162. Initial bias is flipped back to the downside this week. Break of 2.744 minor support will bring retest of 2.409 first. Break there will bring fall resumption to 2.0 psychological level next. On the upside, however, break of 3.424 resistance will argue that natural gas has indeed bottomed and will turn focus back to 4.162 key near term resistance.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50 was already met but there is not clear sign of bottoming yet. Fall from 13.69 might still extend further as long as 4.162 resistance holds. Nevertheless, we’d expect strong support from 1.96 (02 low) to finally conclude the whole decline from 13.69. On the upside, break of 4.162 resistance will now be an important signal that natural gas has finally bottomed out.
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